First reading shows SME activity easing in line with the broader economy, with Small and Established businesses losing momentum
Sydney, Australia, 28 October 2026: Shift, a leading provider of credit and payment products to Australian businesses, today launched the Shift SME Economy Index (‘the Index’), a measure of how many Australian small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are growing their revenue. The Index draws on aggregated data from more than 6,000 Shift customers.
The first edition shows the Index at 49.4 in September 2026, below its neutral reading of 50 and the second lowest reading of 2026, after May (49.0). The sharpest slowdown came in the first half of 2026, and the Index has not fallen below its May low since.
'SMEs are too important, and too poorly measured, to sit at the margins of the national conversation,' said Jamie Osborn, CEO of Shift.
'The Index captures what businesses did, drawn from business data, rather than what they say they expect. We hope it brings the sector into sharper focus,' said Jamie.
Other findings from the first edition include:
Business size: Corporate businesses (50.2) were the only segment above 50. Small (49.7) and Established (49.0) businesses were below 50.
States: NSW recorded the highest reading (50.6). Western Australia recorded the largest fall and the lowest reading (47.9). Victoria (48.1) recorded the largest fall on a year earlier, of 4.7 points.
Industry: Manufacturing (50.8) and rental, hiring and real estate services (50.5) were the only industries above 50. Accommodation and food services recorded the lowest reading (45.6), after falling 10.0 points from August.
Sales and liquidity: Average monthly sales were $323k per business, 2.2% lower than a year earlier. Average monthly liquidity was $104k, 7.3% lower.
AI spending: Among Shift customers paying for software subscriptions, 19.2% paid OpenAI in September 2026, against 9.9% for Anthropic. The typical Anthropic customer spent almost five times as much ($153 a month against $32).
'The September result confirms that conditions for SMEs remained soft through the quarter. The slowdown is not landing evenly. Smaller businesses are bearing the brunt, while Corporate businesses have held up,' said Warren Hogan, Managing Director of EQ Economics.
The Index measures how many SMEs are growing their revenue, not the dollar value of sales. A reading of 50 is neutral, and readings between 49 and 51 reflect average business conditions. Readings are reported by business size, state and industry, alongside average monthly sales and liquidity per business.
The full report is available at shift.com.au/sme-economy-index/
About Shift
Shift provides finance to small, established and corporate sized businesses in Australia. Founded in 2014 and headquartered in Sydney, Shift has funded more than $8b to over 30,000 businesses. Products include Business Overdraft, Term Loan, Equipment Line, Asset Finance and Trade Account, available directly, via suppliers or through more than 7,000 accredited broker partners.
About EQ Economics
EQ Economics is an independent Sydney-based economic advisory firm founded in 2016 by Warren Hogan, former ANZ Chief Economist and the Australian Financial Review’s inaugural Top Economic Forecaster (2024). The firm provides independent forecasting and advice to help Australian business leaders plan for a changing economy.
